"BUT THE TIMES IN LIFE WHEN YOU LIKE YOUR ODDS ARE EXACTLY THE TIMES WHEN YOU'RE MOST LIKELY TO BE OVERESTIMATING THEM.": Economics explains why, from every moment of fools rushing in (in the Elvis sense) to every war that takes a little too long:

The same holds true for everything else in life. You might be very good, on average, at estimating the quality of potential mates. But the rare one whose quality you've way overestimated is precisely the one you're most likely to marry. And you might be very good, on average, at predicting how wars will go. But the rare one you've been way overoptimistic about is the one you choose to fight. So, marriages and wars are fraught with disappointment.

Steven E. Landsburg in Slate today. Is it me, or is Slate like cyberland's NPR? Left-leaning, probably grossly unprofitable, steady and reliable for intelligent journalism and analysis. The Dialogues are like Fresh Air. The Dispatches are like NPR's on-site reporters. Kaus is like Todd Munch or somebody. It all makes sense, I tell you what.